Peak Oil Myth
Peak oil on a per field basis is not debatable, but the question arises regarding whether there is a peak oil myth regarding global oil production rates.
On a global scale, there is no doubt that peak oil is a hugely controversial topic. The primary problem is the people that advocate for it or argue against it really are missing one significant bit of information. The OPEC countries do not release oil reserve rates that have been independently verified. This means that a rather huge chunk of the oil supply picture is murky at best and a complete fallacy at worst.
Despite this lack of data, those in favor of or against peak oil as a global concept will turn blue in the face arguing their position. I’ll say up front that I believe in the case for peak oil, but am not convinced when it will occur. In this article, however, we look into the arguments of those who believe peak oil is a myth.
The world is a big, big place. One of the primary arguments against peak oil is that we have only begun to scratch the exploration possibilities. Brazil, for instance, has recently been found to have five to 10 billion barrels of oil off it’s shores. The Arctic Circle is also believed to be a potentially oil laden area. The Gulf of Mexico is known to have oil fields, and many believe moving farther out into it will result in finding huge fields that dwarf those found in Saudi Arabia.
Another significant argument against Peak Oil is the improvement in technology. There is a nasty little secret in the oil industry. When oil is produced from a field, we only actually pull out 40 percent of so of the oil. After that, it is to difficult and expensive to pull more oil out given the price it can be sold at. As technology improves, we will be able to revisit fields and pull out more and more.
A third argument for the peak oil myth is the Big Oil conspiracy. As we’ve all noticed, large oil companies have been making some rather huge profits. The theory is peak oil is simply a public relations campaign to force prices higher and generate massive profits. One would hardly be surprised to find the oil companies trying to crank up prices, but one has to wonder why they didn’t do it for the last fifty years.
Although the above represent the major arguments suggesting there is a peak oil myth, others abound. Some believe demand will drop due to price increases. Some believe the OPEC countries actually have more oil than we guess and so on. The decision you make on the concept of peak oil is just that – your choice. Read up on the subject and make an informed decision.